Forestry, logging and support activities (NAICS 113, 1153): Quebec, 2025

As shown in Chart 1, employment has fluctuated significantly since 2014, although this may be partly due to the low volume of jobs, which makes the data more volatile. The variations are also intensified by the large proportion of self-employed workers who can enter or leave this sector quickly. However, the volume of jobs in this cluster depends mainly on the vitality of wood product manufacturing, and more specifically the demand from sawmills, and the purchase price offered to producers. However, a combination of factors has made the last few years difficult for the entire forestry sector.

In 2022, a drop in demand led to a decrease in the price of wood, which had peaked in the previous year. This trend continued in 2023 when, despite significant housing needs in Canada and the United States, which account for approximately 30% of wood product manufacturing sales, housing starts were declining, slowed down by high inflation and rising interest rates. As a result, inventories built up and prices fell, forcing sawmills to cut costs and adjust production downward. As a result, demand for roundwood declined and forest harvesting activities slowed, resulting in job losses and revenue decline for forest producers.

In addition to declining revenues, producers have also been faced with rising costs due to high inflation. The sharp rise in diesel prices has had a particularly significant impact, raising the cost of harvesting and transporting wood. Some regions also had to harvest part of the forest infested by spruce budworm and to respect new protected areas. As raw materials become less accessible, and machinery has to be moved more frequently, costs often rise. Moreover, in the summer of 2023, several regions, including Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean, Abitibi-Témiscamingue and Nord-du-Québec, suffered the negative consequences of major forest fires. As access to the forests was forbidden, activities had to be put on hold for a period, reducing revenues. Governmental measures have been put in place to support the industry, but all these difficulties have weakened the sector.

The economic situation did not improve in 2024, but a lack of major forest fires contributed to an increase in employment. However, it was only a partial recovery. Employment levels in 2024 remained lower than in 2022. The closure of some sawmills, whether permanent or otherwise, was certainly a factor. In addition, at the end of the year, the U.S. government threatened to add tariffs on all exports to the United States, which would have been in addition to those already imposed in connection with the softwood lumber dispute. The resulting uncertainty had a negative impact on demand.

The sector saw minimal investments in 2024. This could be explained by the major difficulties that the sector had, which significantly eroded liquidity and revenues.

According to our forecasts, there should be a slight drop in employment in the forestry, logging and forestry support activities cluster over the forecast horizon.

The forest harvesting sector has been hit hard in recent years. This has left contractors with limited flexibility, which is reflected in the investment intentions for 2025. After two difficult years, the lack of liquidity is becoming a major problem.

However, the market has already mostly adjusted to low prices and reduced demand. Since they have not been able to survive in recent years, some sawmills have already shut down permanently. Large companies have also had to deal with centralizing their operations by closing some of their plants to allow others to survive until the situation improves. The resulting reduced demand has had an impact on forest harvesting operations, and the situation is likely to remain tense in the near future. Although the forestry sector has been largely unaffected by the new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, the softwood lumber dispute fees are still being imposed and have been adjusted upward. These rates have more than doubled, from 14.54% to 35.19% in the summer of 2025, thereby reducing the competitiveness of sawmills in Quebec and the rest of Canada.

At the beginning of the forecast period, uncertainty could delay exports to the United States, while people wait to see how the situation develops before acting. Since demand is difficult to foresee, sawmills may want to limit piling up inventory, which will reduce the pace of forest harvesting. Self-employed workers will likely be affected as companies will try to maintain their workforce to avoid losing skilled labour, which is difficult to replace.

However, the situation should improve slightly later in the period. Significant housing needs and lower interest rates should help construction recover gradually in both Canada and the United States. However, in terms of exports, the increase in punitive tariffs will raise the cost of lumber from Quebec, which will reduce the positive effect that lower interest rates will have on construction. In theory, American customers pay these fees, but the Quebec industry may have to absorb some of them to keep its market share. Despite the uncertainty and rising costs, housing needs are so urgent that a boost in residential construction is still expected among our neighbours. Demand from sawmills is expected to pick up slowly to replenish inventories, thereby stimulating forestry jobs and allowing it to recover some of the losses incurred at the beginning of the period. However, part of the increased demand will be met by an increase in hours worked, especially among self-employed workers, which will limit the recovery. A certain drop in employment is therefore expected to remain until the end of the forecast period and continue until the construction sector has a stronger recovery.

In addition, there is still a great deal of uncertainty surrounding forestry opportunities, whether due to potential new protected areas, the spruce budworm, or other factors. For now, the trade war between the United States and Canada seems to have put the implementation of a caribou protection strategy on the back burner, but this project could also return if the economic climate improves. Limiting the areas available for logging can negatively affect profitability. If harvesting must be done in areas that are difficult to access, more remote, or less dense, then harvesting costs increase while revenues remain the same.

In light of its importance to the Quebec economy and to many municipalities, the Canadian and provincial governments will continue to support the forestry sector. While there have already been high government investments in recent years, even larger investments have been announced for the next three years, in particular to respond to the threats of tariff increases. Changes to the forestry system are also being proposed. If adopted, the new bill will bring more predictability for manufacturing companies and reduce the costs of harvesting raw materials, which would be positive for forest harvesting.

In addition, with an increased awareness of the consequences of climate change and the threats to forests that are expected to become more frequent (e.g., fires, droughts, diseases, insects, etc.), governments will continue to invest to ensure that there will be a future supply. Among other things, this will support reforestation services, forest nurseries, and forest firefighting services.

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Appendix

Table A1
Geographic Distribution of Employment and Employment Outlook in Quebec, average 2022-2024

Table A2
Workforce Characteristics in Quebec, average 2022-2024