Recent Labour Market Assessment Methodology
Employment and Social Development Canada's (ESDC) recent labour market assessments (RLMA) provides an overview of recent labour market conditions in Canada by economic region (ER) for occupational categories included in the National Occupational Classification (NOC).
The RLMA model uses a number of indicators to classify regional occupational (ER-NOC) labour markets in one of the following categories:
The prospect of finding work in this occupation was very good over the past few years. In this occupational category, there were far more job openings than workers available to fill them.
The prospect of finding work in this occupation was good over the past few years. In this occupational category, there were more job openings than workers available to fill them.
The prospect of finding work in this occupation was fair over the past few years. The number of workers available to work was about the same as the amount of job openings in this occupational category.
The prospect of finding work in this occupation was poor over the past few years. In this occupational category, there were more workers available for work than job openings.
The prospect of finding work in this occupation was very poor over the past few years. In this occupational category, there were far more workers available to work than job openings.
There were no sufficient data to produce an assessment of labour market conditions in that region over the past few years due to a low employment rate in that occupational category.
Labour market indicators used in the recent labour market assessments
The Recent Labour Market Assessment (RLMA) is structured in two phases and incorporates the following indicators in its evaluation.
RLMA Phase I refers to the initial labour market assessment, which determines the labour market conditions for each ER-NOC (at the 5-digit level), categorizing them as experiencing a strong shortage, shortage, balance, surplus, or strong surplus. Below is the list of indicators used to construct RLMA Phase I. The indicators listed below are combined to generate the RLMA Phase I assessment.
| Indicator | Data Source | Variable definition/description |
|---|---|---|
| Employment Growth | Labour Force Survey | The compound growth in employment by ER-NOC over the last three years. For example, for the 2024 assessment, we used the compound growth rate from 2022 to 2024. |
| Unemployment rate | Labour Force Survey | The number of unemployed people is expressed as a percentage of the labour force. We calculated the annual unemployment rate by ER-NOC for the most recent years and the average annualized change in the rate over the last three years. |
| Wage growth | Labour Force Survey | The compound growth in hourly wages by ER-NOC over the last three years. For example, for the 2022 assessment, we used the compound growth rate from 2022 to 2024. |
| Share of overtime workers | Labour Force Survey | Number of overtime workers as a percentage of the number of employed people by ER-NOC. This indicator is computed for the most recent year. |
| Share of new hires | Labour Force Survey | Number of employees with less than 12 months of tenure as a percentage of the number of employed people by ER-NOC. This indicator is computed for the most recent year. |
RLMA Phase II builds upon the results of RLMA Phase I by incorporating additional indicators, as listed below. These supplementary indicators provide further context and depth to the initial assessment, enhancing the overall evaluation of labour market conditions.
| Indicator | Data Source | Variable definition/description |
|---|---|---|
| RLMA phase I for neighbouring Region | Labour Force Survey | Application of RLMA Phase I labour market assessment indicator to adjacent or neighbouring economic regions. |
| Mobility rate | 2021 Census of Population | The share of the total in-migration for each ERs by 5-digits NOC. This indicator represents a proxy for the ability of the ER to attract people from other regions. |
| Job vacancy rate | Job Vacancy and Wage Survey & Labour Force Survey | Number of vacant positions as a percentage of the number of employed people and job vacancies by ER-NOC. This indicator is computed for the most recent year. |
| Unemployment to vacancy ratio | Job Vacancy and Wage Survey & Labour Force Survey | Number unemployed to the number of vacant positions by ER-NOC. This indicator is computed for the most recent year. |
| Vacancy duration | Job Vacancy and Wage Survey | The average number of days the position remains vacant by ER-NOC. This indicator is computed for the most recent year. |
| Employment insurance (EI) beneficiaries to employment ratio | Employment Insurance Administrative Data & Labour Force Survey | The ratio of the number of EI beneficiaries to employed individuals. This indicator is computed by ER-NOC for the most recent year. |
| Average number of EI benefit weeks compared to the five-year historical average | Employment Insurance Administrative Data | The average number of weeks of EI benefits is computed by ER-NOC for the most recent year. |
RLMA Final Score
The RLMA final score is determined by averaging the indicators for each ER-NOC combination, provided at least five of the eight indicators are available. Weights are assigned to the indicators based on their level of agreement or disagreement with the previous year's RLMA final results, with higher weights given to those showing stronger alignment.
Consultation with regional labour market economists
Regional economists validate the results: they agree or disagree with ESDC's assessment on labour markets in shortage/surplus and they provide rationale for assessment in areas of disagreement. The final assessment incorporates the feedback of the regional labour market experts.
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